Consumer confidence is up. Interest rates are down. So economists now are arguing about when - not if - the recession will end. Most say it will be over by the end of June.
But don't start the ticker-tape parade. The recovery is likely to be so feeble you'll barely notice.
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Economy's mixed signals; Recovery hits crucial turning point
May 1, 1991
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When President Bush declared victory in the gulf war two months ago, economists said relieved consumers would start spending - and help pull the economy out of recession in June or July.
March went according to plan. Consumer confidence shot up. Retailers said shoppers were coming through the doors again. Home sales picked up.
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Bouncing back slowly; Main Street sees glimmer of recovery
June 10, 1991
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For a month or so, economists in ivory towers and Wall Street offices have been saying the recession is nearly over, if it hasn't ended already.
Business owners and executives have been skeptical. A recovery "hasn't gotten here yet," says Fred M. Crosby, owner of the Crosby Furniture Store in Cleveland. "I wish (the economists) would come buy from my store."
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Greeting signs of hope; Tough times redefine normal
July 5, 1991
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CONCORD, Mass. - Optimism is beginning to stir in this historic region, where in 1775, a militiaman fired the shot heard 'round the world and ignited the Revolutionary War.
On this Fourth of July weekend, now that the colonial cannons have been fired and the parade has filed down Liberty Street, talk is turning to the economy. There are signs that after the long recession, things are improving.
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Economic recovery slow; Lack of vigor leaves many doubting
Aug. 8, 1991
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This spring it seemed the economy was picking up and by midsummer we could sit back and watch the recovery unfold.
CEOs who said they didn't detect any improvement were dismissed as worrywarts who couldn't see beyond their own dismal balance sheets. Few people paid attention to economists who cautioned that recovery would come in fits and starts and that unemployment would remain high for a long time.
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Rate cuts: Fuel for recovery? Fed remedy faces some obstacles
Sept. 16, 1991
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Friday, the Federal Reserve knocked down two key interest rates and banks began lowering prime lending rates. That should help stimulate the economy.
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Time to 'get the job done'; Bush asks action by March 20
Jan. 29, 1992
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President Bush, saying the USA needs "help now," Tuesday night unveiled a package of tax and military cuts to lift "this nation out of hard times."
Bush used his annual State of the Union message to remind Congress how they stood together "at a moment of high peril" a year ago to achieve the liberation of Kuwait.
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Brady: Recovery has begun
Feb. 11, 1992
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The economy is turning from recession to recovery, Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady told USA TODAY reporters and editors Monday.
Brady said he sees "compass points" that make him believe a recovery has begun. They include:
- Healthy earnings increases at many corporations, including Coca-Cola Co. and Johnson && Johnson.
- Goodyear Tire && Rubber's recent announcement that it will recall 300 laid-off workers. And, Brady said, "the president of Goodyear called me and said he thinks it's going to be closer to 900."
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Why this recession will end
Feb. 12, 1992
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Recessions do end. This one will, too. You can't repeal the business cycle.
And right now, there are reasons to believe falling interest rates are finally starting to turn the economy around:
- In late January, car sales edged up. They're still at a recession level, but the sales pace is quickening.
- Sales of existing homes rose 0.9% in December from November, the third straight monthly rise. And real-estate agents say sales stayed strong last month.
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When economy rebounds, then what?
Feb. 12, 1992
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When this recession is behind us, what then? Keeping the economy healthy and fit for global competition requires long-term strategies. To get some ideas, we went to the University of Chicago - home to more Nobel-winning economists than any U.S. university - and to Harvard, the University of Michigan and businesses. On this page are the most interesting solutions we heard.
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Fed trying to fuel economic recovery
Apr. 10, 1992
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The Federal Reserve pushed down interest rates Thursday because it is concerned that this year's economic recovery could fizzle just as last year's did, experts say.
The federal funds rate - what banks charge each other for short-term loans and a guidepost for other short-term rates - fell to 3.75% from 4% when the Fed poured cash into the nation's banking system.
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Economy gains new momentum
Apr. 29, 1992
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The recession is over. The recovery has begun.
Again.
Two bursts of good news Tuesday produced the surest signs yet that the economy is growing. The pace may not feel great. The jobless rate probably will stay around 7% the rest of the year.
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Consumers upbeat third month in a row
May 27, 1992
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Consumer confidence has risen the third straight month, a welcome sign that the economic recovery is finally being felt in homes around the USA.
The Conference Board, a New York-based business-research group, said Tuesday that its confidence index posted a strong increase this month, to 71.6 from 65.1 in April.
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Hot times in the Ozarks; Small towns scoff at recession
June 18, 1992
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SILVER HILL, Ark. - Tom Aston knows the rest of the nation isn't in such great shape.
But his neck of the woods - the lush, green Ozark Mountains of northwest Arkansas - is doing fine.
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Are the good times gone? Slow-grow '90s follow go-go '80s
July 15, 1992
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A catchy line designed to sell beer also pretty well sums up the state of the U.S. economy: "It doesn't get any better than this." And it won't for some time.
Employment inches up one month, plunges the next; consumer spending is rising but at an agonizingly slow pace; factory orders see-saw from month to month; exports are flat.
